Thursday, May 28, 2009

Post-Meltdown Technical Analysis?

I'm starting to gather information for an Investors' Edition of How to Lie with Charts. Looks like I have a lot to learn about technical analysis (finding patterns in charts to make hypotheses about market behavior).

I wonder:
  • Did technical analysis in any way predict or fail to predict last fall's banking crisis?
  • Have traders' opinions on the reliability of technical analysis changed since the meltdown?
My scientific wildass guess (SWAG) on this would be that technical analysis would miss the underlying factors that caused weakness.


  1. There is a lot of investigation and discovery involved in Math. It takes creativity to solve problems and that's why Math teachers are often the first persons that other people go to when they want a creative solution to a problem.

    I don't know why some teachers still persist in spreading the notion that Math is all about doing things one way all the time. It isn't.

    This is one of the reasons why kids grow up thinking that Math is difficult. in real life, you have to solve problems creatively. When you find a method that works well given the resources you have, it doesn't mean that method will work in another situation, that is, given another set of variables.

  2. I was once working on a K-12 educational program for math. We had two academic advisers, a college professor and a kindergarten teacher. The professor told us that young children have no concept of division. (Perhaps Piaget theory?) The kindergarten teacher said, nonsense, give two kids three cookies and see how long it takes them to share equally.